Mortgage Rate Predictions For The Next 7 Days (May 11, 2011)

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Looking for a conforming mortgage rate prediction? I participate in the weekly Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index survey. This week's results may give you the answers you need.

Conforming Mortgages Rates Only

The mortgage rate prediction comes with some fine print. First, predictions are for conforming mortgages in places like Nashville, Tennessee; Charleston, South Carolina; and wherever else conforming and super-conforming mortgages are available.

Second, jumbo mortgages are specifically excluded from the survey because jumbos loans are priced differently from conforming ones. The same is true for FHA Streamlines and VA loans. Furthermore, unique loan types, like those for investors with 5 or more properties financed, are excluded.

You can click here to get a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 50% think mortgage rates will increase
• 6% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 44% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to decrease.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this compilation of the greatest movie sandwiches.

What I told Bankrate.com : "Momentum is moving mortgage rates lower. For now, ride the wave."

In Mortgages, The Trend Is Your Friend

When you look at mortgage rate patterns over a long period of time, you notice that mortgage rates move in batches. For any significant chunk of time -- weeks, months, or longer -- mortgage rates are defined the arcs they follow.

Rates don't move sideways over said chunks of time. The move up or they move down. The pattern is called "trending".

Right now, we're in a downward trend.

Since peaking in mid-April, mortgage rates eased through each of the subsequent 4 weeks. At first, the momentum was slow, but last week, the speed picked up. Mortgage rates shed another few basis points, on average, and fell to their lowest levels of the year.

There's little reason for rates to reverse, either. The forces that put rates on this trajectory are still in play:

• Inflation pressures are in check
• The U.S. dollar is gaining versus the Euro
• Debt concerns in Greece are spurring a flight-to-quality

Until there's a shock to the system, there's little reason for rates to rise for more than a few days in a row which, in the bigger picture, would be just a blip.

The near-term trend points to falling mortgage rates.

Your Next Step : Get A Rate Quote

Rates are dropping, but you don't want to wait this one out. The mortgage market can change at a moment's notice -- especially when geopolitics are at play. It's not just data that moves markets anymore -- it's governments, too. And that can be frightening.

To get an up-to-date rate quote, call my office or send me an email and I'll be happy to oblige.

Or, to cut to the chase and get a rate quote, do this:

1. Use my online mortgage rate quote form -- no social security number required
2. I'll review your notes and send basic follow-ups via email
3. Once you reply, I'll get live rates in your hand. You can lock or wait -- your choice.

Expect to have rates in your hand within about an hour, during business hours.