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Costco is celebrating Christmas. It's not even Halloween yet.
By moving the Holiday Shopping season up by three weeks, I can't help but wonder how this might skew the Retail Sales data released for November and December.
If consumers do their shopping now, Retail Sales should fall short of expectations for November and/or December and that will lead analysts to believe that Americans are consuming fewer goods.
Because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of our economy, weak Retail Sales data during the peak of the Holiday Shopping season may be interpreted to mean that the economy is slowing down when, in fact, it's not -- it's only facing a displacement of just a few weeks.
Looking long-term, this bodes well for mortgage rates. When markets think the economy is weakening, it tends to drag down mortgage rates, too. Maybe we'll see that through December and January, giving a boost to housing during a traditonally weak time of year.
But, that said -- November 14 is the next Retail Sales report. If Costco and other retailers succeed in jump-starting holiday sales, we can assume that November's data will be stronger than expected, thereby pushing mortgage rates higher.
Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.
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