Case-Shiller Index Shows 5% Growth In June But The Data Is “Imperfect”

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Home prices are rising, says the news. But are they really?  The cited data may be too old to be relevant.

Case-Shiller Index Says Monthly Home Values Up 5% in June

According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.

It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.  On paper, the figures look great, but homeowners and home buyers in Cincinnati area would do well to temper their Case-Shiller enthusiasm.

For a few reasons, really.

The Obvious Flaws In The Case-Shiller System

The Case-Shiller Index is accurate, and imperfect. There's several reasons why we have to look deeper than the headlines.

First, Case-Shiller releases data on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.

• Existing Home Sales are down 27 percent
• New Home Sales are down 12 percent
• Homebuilder confidence is down

Knowing what the housing market did on June 30 has as little relevance as knowing what the weather report was from that day.  You can't apply the data from 2 months ago to make an informed decision today.

June is ancient real estate history to buyers and sellers in Cincinnati.

And, second, the Case-Shiller Index is not "local".  It's a composite of 20 cities, none of which are in Southeastern Ohio. Neither Cincinnati, Dayton, nor Columbus make the list, rendering the data somewhat useless to local folks anyway.

Click here for better, truly local real-time real estate data in Cincinnati.

Case-Shiller Is Good For Economists, Bad For Consumers

The Case-Shiller Index isn't all bad. After all, it's "good" data.  It's just delayed and general.  That's fine if you're an economist or policy-maker in need of clues on housing, but it ain't no good if you're trying to make a buy or sell decision.

For that, you need your real estate stats to be more better.

And then, when you've found a home and it's time for your mortgage, give me a call or.

(Post adapted from Bring the Blog, a blogging service for real estate and mortgage pros)