A Mortgage Rate Prediction For The Next 7 Days (July 29, 2010)

• Tweet

Looking to lock a mortgage rate this week? Wondering if you should float your rate instead? I'm a contributor to the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend Index and this week's survey should give you guidance.

Conforming Mortgage Rate Predictions Only

By way of disclosure, these mortgage rate predictions are for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae mortgages only. The survey is national, covering Cincinnati, Ohio; Potomac, Maryland; and everywhere else.

FHA streamline refinances are not covered because FHA mortgage rates are based on the price of GNMA securities. Furthermore, unique property types including non-warrantable condos in Chicago, condotels in Florida, and loans for investors with more than 4 properties financed are excluded.

for a real-time rate quote.

Breaking Down The Predictions

Here's the mortgage rate outlook for the upcoming week:

• 21% think mortgage rates will increase
• 5% think mortgage rates will decrease
• 74% think mortgage rates will won't change

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching this story about a guy sent to Mars for a reality TV show that ends up gets canceled on Day 36 of shooting.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"What goes down, must go up. Rates reached a plateau three weeks ago. Get ready for the rising."

Mortgage markets can't seem to break through resistance. It's signal that higher rates are coming.

Momentum Lasted 14 Weeks. Now It's Stopped. Lock In.

Mortgage markets are stuck. If you've been shopping for a loan lately, you've likely noticed that there's been no real change in mortgage rates going back 3 or 4 weeks. Or, maybe you haven't noticed.

Either way, it's bad for rate shoppers. Pricing has hit a wall and getting set to reverse higher. It's all about momentum and when you watch what rates have been doing since April, it'll all make sense.

Check out this timeline:

• Early-April : Eyjafjallajökull erupts, starting rates downward
• Mid-April : Greece sovereign debt issues arise; the slide continues.
• Early-June : Soft U.S. data keeps rates falling
• Mid-June : Mortgage rates reach new, all-time lows
• Late-June : Mortgage rates continue to make new, all-time lows
• Early-July : Mortgage rates bottom out; the Refi Boom begins

But since early-July, there's been no movement in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, no movement in the 15-year fixed, and no movement in the ARMs. Rates are "stuck".

And, unfortunately, mortgage markets don't work like strength-training where a person plateaus for a few weeks, and then makes more gains.

In the Mortgage World, when momentum stops, it's because there's a force pulling in the opposite direction.

Lock That Mortgage Rate With A Quick Phone Call

After 14 weeks, mortgage rate momentum has stopped dead in its tracks. This should be your signal to lock in that rate.

Call my office today to give an application by phone. It's a 4-minute call and I can have a guaranteed interest rate in your hand within an hour. My number is 513-443-2020 or, if email is more your thing,and we can get started that way instead.

Either way, it's time to make a move..