Mortgage Rates Are Lower After June’s Jobs Report (But Shouldn’t Be)

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In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank. Sort of.

Jobs AND Unemployment Rate Down

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month, and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent.

And, no -- those figures aren't contradictory.

Because the Unemployment Rate measures the number of people looking for work as compared to the total workforce size, as people stop "looking", it follows that the Unemployment Rate falls, too.

Fewer people are looking for jobs.

So Far, 857,000 New Jobs This Year

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That’s 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

Plus, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Why Jobs Matter To Mortgage Rates

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth.  This is because working Americans have more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending, the biggest part of the U.S. economy by a long-shot.

Job growth is better for the economy than job loss.

So, as consumer spending grows and lifts the economy, Wall Street mentality tends to shift from "safety of principal" (i.e. bond markets) toward "return on principal" (i.e. stock markets).  A move like this is bad for rate shoppers in Cincinnati because falling bond demand is linked to higher mortgage rates.

Take Advantage. The Market Is Missing The Signals.

A strong jobs report should cause conforming mortgage rates to rise. And, if we peel back the layers, June's jobs report was strong.  But Wall Street doesn't see it that way.

Wall Street is focusing on the headline number -- 125,000 jobs lost -- and ignoring the bigger picture. Don't let that be your loss, though.  For now, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are below the magical 4.500 percent marker for which so many homeowners waited to refinance.

5-year ARMs are available under 3 percent.  It's unfathomable.

Take advantage of the lowest mortgage rates in history.

ARMs Below 3 Percent And Other Amazing Rates

Whether you live in Cincinnati, Chicago, or anywhere else, mortgage rates are amazingly low right now. If I wasn't knee-deep in mortgages each day of my life, I don't think I'd believe the rates were "real", actually.  It's almost ridiculous.

No matter what you think about your mortgage qualifications -- too little equity, too little income, too big of a loan size -- take 5 minutes out of your day to call your loan officer. Find out whether you qualify for a mortgage at today's rates.  Sure, rates may fall lower, but, then again, they might not.

Call my office at 513-443-2020 to get your rate, or.