How Mortgage Rates Are Responding To Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, And AIG

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After writing yesterday's blog post, my ThinkPad went blue.  Cue the video above.

It's a shame because the post went deep on Wall Street's recent troubles and how each piece of bad news actually helps everyday homeowners.  When I went to publish, the post vanished.  And by that point, markets were already open, mortgage rates were already plunging, and I wanted to be the phone with clients.  I did manage to Twitter, however.

A one-paragraph recap follows:

The government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rendered mortgage bonds among the safest investments in the world.  Therefore, when political or economic uncertainty exists, mortgage rates should fall in safe haven buying.

The post was especially timely because safe haven buying driving mortgage rates down yesterday.  As the stock markets shed $800 billion in value, investors moved into safer instruments like bonds -- including mortgage bonds.  With more demand, prices were up and rate were down.  And how.

Because mortgage debt is now government-guaranteed, the sell-off in stocks was terrific news for both active home buyers and for homeowners that missed last week's gold rush.  However, it did little to soothe Wall Street's nerves. That job falls to Ben Bernanke.

Coincidentally, the Federal Reserve meets today.

The Fed may cut the Fed Funds Rate from its current 2.000 level, or it may do nothing.  It really won't matter.  Markets will be more tuned to what the Fed says than what it does.

The markets crave certainty right now and they want the Fed to give it to them.

See, one of the Federal Reserve's missions is to maintain the stability of the U.S. financial system -- it's right there on its Web site -- so you can be sure that Chairman Bernanke will address what's transpired on Wall Street, directly or indirectly, in his press release today. 

To ignore the turmoil would be catastrophic to market psychology.

If the Fed shows sympathy for markets -- implying more Fed support and action -- stock prices should rebound and mortgage rates will rise in response.  By contrast, if the Fed goes laissez-faire, mortgage rates should fall. 

All the market wants right now is a little bit of conviction and the Federal Reserve will help give it to them at 2:15 P.M. ET.  Expect mortgage rates to be volatile today -- we just can't know in what direction.