Bankrate.com Mortgage Trend Index (October 2, 2008)

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I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.

As a reminder:

1. The survey is for conforming loans only.
2. Send me email for personal purchase or refinance questions.
3. I send market updates a few times daily.  Get them on your mobile.

Anyway, on to the group's predictions for the next 30 days:

• 13% of participants predict rates will increase
• 67% of participants predict rates will decrease
• 20% of participants predict rates will remain unchanged

I am predicting that rates will increase over the next 30 days, but that doesn't mean you should necessarily follow my advice when choosing whether to lock a rate, or float it.  My advice may not be appropriate for your individual situation.

From the Bankrate.com survey:

"Expect a stock market bounce to pull dollars from mortgage bonds, pushing rates higher."

Lately, stocks prices and bond prices have been a study in opposites.  As one has moved higher, the other has moved lower.  This is because investors are uncertain about the economy, alternatively seeking dollar growth in the stock market, or dollar safety in the bond market.

For a real-life example, when the House defeated the unfortunately-nicknamed "Bailout Bill", fear shook Wall Street and stock markets sold off.  The cash from those stock sales got "parked" in the mortgage bond market, causing rates to improve by as much as 0.375 percent.

Then, on Tuesday, when it became clear that some form of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Bill of 2008 would pass in some form, the stock market recovered.  Of course, mortgage rates erased their gains.

So, now that the Senate has passed a reworked version of the bill and the House is expected to do the same, look for investors to jump back into the stock market full bore, seeking growth.  And it should happen at the expense of bonds -- bad news for mortgage rate shoppers.

To make sure you don't miss what's going on, follow me on Twitter.  It's a free service, it's convenient, and you'll be more likely to get a good mortgage rate if you know what's happening in near-real time.