The 2009 Summer Homebuying Season Was Good To A Lot Of States, Ohio And Illinois Included

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The housing market is in recovery. There's lot of stats to back it up so take your pick:

• Existing home sales are up and supplies are down
• New home sales are up and supplies are way down
• Pending home sales are posting at record paces

And, perhaps, most importantly, the best gauge of the housing market's health -- home values -- is showing consistent improvement.  Both private-sector Case-Shiller Index and the government's own Home Price Index showed home prices on the mend.

Foreclosures may not yet have peaked, but the worst of the housing market is definitely behind us. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.

Between the 2nd and 3rd quarter this year, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency, home values rose 0.2 percent nationally.

Now, it's a statistic without direct meaning to homeowners because the "national real estate market" doesn't exist.  You don't buy a home in America -- you buy a home in Cincinnati.  The Home Price Index data remains important for trending reasons, however.  Especially to lenders.

See, unlike you and me -- people with a limited geographical exposure to the housing markets -- lenders are nationwide.  To them, national data is extremely relevant.

A "national" real estate portfolio is a lender's path to diversification.

So, as we dissect Q3's data, it's important to pick up on a few of the subtler points as compared to Q2.

First, geography does not appear correlated to home price improvement. Each region is represented equally in the Top 10 and spread equally throughout the list.  Clearly, this isn't just a Coastal Recovery.

And second -- stunning analysts -- is that home value changes are occurring independent from foreclosure activity.  For example:

1. California ranks #2 in home value improvement between Q2 and Q3 2009.  Over that same period, California's Foreclosures per Capita is second-worst in the nation, behind Nevada.
2. Illinois beat the national average for home value improvement between Q2 and Q3 2009.  Over that same period, though, Illinois foreclosure rate was nearly 3 times the national average.
3. Between Q2 and Q3 2009, Delaware's foreclosure activity was third-lowest in the country. Its home values, however, fell by more than any other state.

The supply-driven relationship between foreclosure rate and home prices is broken. This is because buy-side demand for homes now exceeds new supply is most U.S. markets.  The inevitable result is higher prices everywhere.

Low mortgage rates, an expanded tax credit, and general optimism about housing should sustain demand through the winter.  Therefore, expect home values to continue to climb further.  If you plan to buy a home in 2010, consider moving up your time frame.

The best "deals" may the ones you get between now and the Super Bowl.

To get a feel for what mortgage rates and payments look like in your local market,with the details of your purchase. I may have some follow-ups for you, but it's a good place to start.  I respond to all of my own emails and I'm pretty quick about it, too. I can send a Good Faith Estimate upon request.