A Mortgage Rate Prediction For The Next 30 Days (November 19, 2009)

• Tweet

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages or payday loans. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 45% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 0% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 55% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent waiting for the punch line than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The malls are empty and so are calls for higher rates."

Consumer spending drives the economy.  Without spending, there's no growth and, as a result, tepid retail sales reports force Wall Street to rethink its bets on U.S. economic recovery.

It's a primary reason why rates return to 5 percent again and again. The economy is back from the brink -- banks are healthier, investment is returning, household net worth is up -- but consumers continue to stand en garde. Confidence is down.

A recovery is not a recovery until consumers buy-in. Literally. And, right now, that's not happening.

Over the next 6 weeks, retail sales will be in focus. How consumers are spending their money; if consumers are spending their money.  Joblessness is a key equational part of the equation, too.

Therefore, keep an eye on your local mall for shoppers, and watch for unemployment rates. Mortgage rates will respond to both between now and January 1.  At the first sign of strength, markets will unleash rates to jump toward 6 percent.

Suddenly, the December 4 jobs report is of huge import.

For now, though, mortgage rates are low. Take advantage.  When rates finally make that break higher, the action will be fast. You won't have much time to react -- maybe 3 days to a week at most.

To stay ahead of mortgage rate changes, follow my "Float or Lock" advice on Facebook and Twitter. It's free and should help you make better decisions with your rate locks.

And if you find my advice useful,or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are excellent.