Trends In Mortgage Rates : What The Fall Season Brings To Rate Shoppers

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Like in 2006, 2007 and 2008, Autumn 2009 is marked by falling leaves and falling mortgage rates.

The trend looks more like a pattern.

Based on Freddie Mac data of the last 4 years, 30-year fixed mortgage rates rise from January through August, and fall through fall. There's 6 weeks left until January.  The clock may be ticking for today's home buyers and rate shoppers.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates are sub-5 percent right now and, by most measures, there's no good reason for it.

• The U.S. dollar is extremely weak -- usually a negative force on mortgage rates
• The price of gold reflects a healthy fear of inflation -- usually a negative force on mortgage rates
• The stock market is on a tear -- usually a negative force on mortgage rates

Furthermore, the economy is no longer in free-fall which is the scenario that dropped rates below 5 percent in the first place.  Mortgage rates are poised to rise and, when they do, they'll rise in a hurry.

See, that's the other trend in mortgage rates.  Rates rise much faster than they fall.  Just ask anyone on the wrong side of the Memorial Day Massacre about how that turned out.   As low as rates are now, we could be looking at 7 percent mortgage rates in a flash.

Timing mortgage markets is unpossible.

As a homeowners, it's easy to keep up with rate trends on a weekly basis with the newspaper or the aforementioned Freddie Mac data, but markets move faster than that.  They're minute-by-minute and ever-changing.  Unfortunately, laypersons don't get access to mortgage bond data for free.  Even the U.S. Treasury market fails as a proxy anymore.

So, to keep up with rates as best you can -- follow my feed on Twitter or fan me on Facebook. I post near-real-time mortgage market updates several times per time  and I usually post advance notice on rate changes for the worse.

You can also get a feel for what rates are doing right now by using the "Rate Offer" form at the top-right of this page. If your situation needs more than 8 fields to summarize,.

I answer all my own mail.