A Mortgage Rate Prediction For The Next 30 Days (November 5, 2009)

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Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo or super jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 43% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 7% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 50% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, Flux Capacitor Day may be better spent watching the Back to the Future Theme Song With Words than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Don't fight the Fed."

The FOMC adjourned yesterday and stayed on message.  Housing is expanding, financial markets are improving, and commerce continues "to pick up".  These are all signals that the recession is over.

However, because Americans are still losing jobs, net, it's keeping inflationary pressures in check.

The employment counterforce is why the Federal Reserve can (and will) hold the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent for the foreseeable future and that should spark some interesting economic development.  Already, the dollar is replacing the yen in carry trade.

Everywhere we look, the country is on the brink of breaking through.  And, like Fred Flintstone driving around with bald feet, once Big Business gets a grip on the road, the Fed's ultra-accommodative policies should "gas" the economic car forward.

When it happens, be prepared.  The move may not specifically lead to inflation, but it will lead to the fear of inflation which is just as bad.  Inflation sends mortgage rates soaring.

Mortgage rates often rise faster than they fall and we're going to see the 30-year fixed cross 6 percent before long.  Maybe even by December.

Keep in mind, though, that mortgage rates are always changing, minute-by-minute.  Before you lock in, make sure you're not locking into a rally, for example.  That's like buying a shirt the day before it goes on sale.  You need to have better timing.

If you're not already subscribing, follow my "Float or Lock" advice on Facebook and Twitter.  It's free and should help you make better rate lock decisions.

And if you find my advice useful,or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are excellent.