Mortgage Rate Predictions (October 29, 2009)

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Need a mortgage rate prediction for the next month? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo or super jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 67% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 8% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 25% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching Joe Cocker's Misheard Lyrics from Woodstock versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage rates drift higher through Thanksgiving."

Mortgage rates have dipped this week, falling by 0.375% in the last 48 hours.  We're still very much in the hole, however. Since troughing October 11, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have added 1/2 percent and the 15-year fixed has added a quarter.

Mortgage rates are still trending higher overall.

To understand why that trend will continue, we need to get a feel for why rates were low in the first place:

1. The Fed built artificial MBS demand with its $1.25 trillion purchase program
2. Risk-averse investors sought refuge from a plummeting stock market
3. Wall Street stressed more about deflation than inflation

Each of these items placed downward pressure on mortgage rates and it's the reason why 30-year fixed rates touch all-time lows this year.  Mortgage rates were really good for a very long time.

But now, as (1) The Fed ends its purchases, (2) Stock markets recover, and (3) Inflation fears resurface, mortgage rates are returning to "normal".  Any dips between now and the New Year should be considered locking opportunities -- they're not going to last.

Mortgage rates will be a 6 percent before long.

One thing to keep in mind, though, mortgage rates change minute-by-minute and when you're evaluating whether to lock in, you need to be getting accurate, timely information. Answers to questions like "Is it safe float my rate?" or "Should I lock my mortgage rate as soon as possible?" shouldn't go unanswered.

I give "Float or Lock" advice in near-real time via on Facebook and Twitter.

And if you find my advice useful,or call me so we can work together. I answer all my own emails and my rates are really good.