Mortgage Rate Predictions (October 22, 2009)

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Need a mortgage rate prediction for the next month? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo or super jumbo mortgages, or payday loans. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 55% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 12% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 33% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching Balloon Boy get the Fresh Prince treatment on Facebook versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The trend is not your friend. Lock your mortgage rates, folks."

Since bottoming out October 11, 2009, mortgage rates have soared. In some cases, we've added as much as 0.625% to rates.

The surge in mortgage rates stems from 3 main catalysts:

1. The U.S. dollar is getting destroyed in global currency markets
2. The price of crude oil leapt past $80 per barrel, bringing gas prices along with it
3. The Fed is withdrawing its support for the mortgage market, but keeping the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000%

Individually, each of these developments would put upward pressure on mortgage rates.  In tandem, they're killing today's low interest rate environment.

Wall Street's fear of inflation is returning and it spells terrible news for rate shoppers as we head into November. Forget about snaring the 4.500 percent 30-year fixed rate mortgage with 0 points. It's not going to happen. The markets have moved on.  Instead, consider taking what the market gives you.

In the not-too-distant future, 6 percent interest rates will be the norm.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates change minute-by-minute and when you're looking to lock, you need timely information. Answers to questions like "Should I float because mortgage rates are improving?" or "Should you lock because mortgage rates are worsening?" shouldn't go unanswered.

I give "Float or Lock" advice in near-real time via on Facebook and Twitter.

And if you find my advice useful,or call me so we can work together. My rates are really good.