Bankrate.com Mortgage Trend Index (November 13, 2008)

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I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only and does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, or jumbo mortgages.  For any of these loan types, I should mention, however, you're welcome to email me personally for a rate quote.

Anyway, here are the group's predictions for the next 30 days:

I am predicting that rates will fall over the next 30 days, but don't necessarily follow my advice when choosing whether to lock a rate, or float it.  My advice may not be appropriate for your individual situation.

From the Bankrate.com survey:

"Government and lender intervention should stabilize housing, helping rates to fall."

Now, if there's any lesson to have been learned by the casual mortgage market observer this year, it's this -- markets don't move to the beat of just one drum.  There are an uncountable number of outside influences on mortgage rates. 

Government intervention is one of them but, lately, we've started to see lender intervention, too.  This is a relatively new phenomenon that may do a ton of good for housing.  Following the lead of Bank of America and JP Morgan, CitiMortgage placed a moratorium on foreclosures. 

And now other banks are jumping on the bandwagon.

By slowing the rate of foreclosures, lenders can reduce the available housing supply in any given market.  With less inventory, home values will have smaller downward drag and that will eventually cause prices to move in a positive direction.  This is basic economics.

It may also be why banks are suddenly finding altruism.  Sometimes, helping others can be extremely self-serving and now may be one of those times.  When housing finds stabilization, so should the economy and that should help mortgage rates fall.  Until then, however, the road will be choppy -- some days up, some days down, but most days a volatile mess. 

To know what's happening in the mortgage markets now, get near-real time market updates from me @mortgagereports on Twitter.