Mortgage Rate Predictions (October 15, 2009)

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Need a mortgage rate prediction for the next month? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 67% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 8% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 25% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to increase.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching Biz's Halloween Beat of the Day versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage markets respond to a weakening dollar and inflation."

Lately, mortgage bonds have been trading at unsustainable levels.

Despite a growing mound of evidence that the economy is expanding and what looks to be an over-supply of treasury debt, mortgage-backed securities are priced as high as they've been since May.  It's unnatural, really; a hedge against a stock market flop. Or something else.

But forget about why rates are low -- low rates are about to end.

As the U.S. Dollar gets crushed in currency markets, the price of oil is spiking.  And, as that's happening, it looks like consumers are starting to spend again. Put 'em together and you have the recipe for inflation.

At least, that's what Wall Street thinks.

Mortgage bonds can't catch a break this week. Rates are up markedly and seem poised to keep rising through Halloween and into November.  If you're waiting for a market bottom, today may be it.

Stop waiting for the 4.500 percent 30-year fixed and take what the market's giving you. Before long, 6 percent rates will replace 5 percent ones.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates change minute-by-minute. The best way to stay in-front of rate changes is to subscribe near-real time market updates via Facebook or Twitter.  You're more likely to get good rates if know when to lock.

If my advice is helpful to you,or call me so we can work together. My rates are really good.