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I've said it once before, but it bears repeating: To follow mortgage rates on a day-to-day basis, keep your eye on the mortgage-backed securities market. The popular 10-year U.S. treasury note is not a proxy.
Both are government-backed bonds, but they are as different as Barry and Bobby Jr.
Over the last 3 days of last week, we see from the chart that treasuries moved at breakneck speed while mortgage bonds barely moved.
But despite the feverish action in treasuries, mortgage markets barely budged.
This trading pattern counters the popular myth that 10-year treasuries predict future mortgage rates. They don't. Over the very long-term, maybe. But on a day-to-day basis -- no way, Jose.
If you want to know where mortgage rates are going right now, you have be watching the mortgage-backed securities market.
And that brings us to the next issue -- MBS rate quotes aren't available to the general public. Therefore, if you're buying a home or looking to remortgage, consider saddling up with a mortgage guy that pays for real-time access to mortgage market data. Or, take the non-committal route and follow my semi-regular market updates on Twitter.
So long as credit markets remain out of joint, expect mortgage rates to move independent from treasury yields.
Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.
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