Are Mortgage Rates Going Up Or Down? (September 17, 2009)

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Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer,.

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 16% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 25% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 59% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am setting the trend, predicting that mortgage rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, watching this hidden-camera, cruel-tricks-on-kids video may be a better use of your time than reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Rates drift lower into the start of the Holiday Shopping season."

With Summer over and trading volume back to full strength, the market is turning a corner.  It's increasingly clear that economy bottomed out sometime between February and May and Wall Street is no longer waiting for the other economic shoe to drop.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke validated this position, saying the recession is "very likely over".

• Housing markets are rebounding with force; values are up in many markets.
• Retail Sales are plowing ahead, ahead of expectations
• Consumer confidence is rising ahead of schedule

Despite the positive signals, though, investors are wanting to see more strength from the jobs market. Unemployment remains high and job creation is still a net negative month-over-month.  Until Americans get back to work, consumer spending is likely to be tempered and that's a Big Elephant.

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy.  No jobs, no spending.  And, meanwhile, the Holiday Shopping season is about to start.

It'll be 4 weeks until the next retail sales report.  Until then, expect Wall Street to take a cautious approach to calls for recovery.  The framework is there, but the work's not done.  It'll take a sustained boost in consumer spending to convince the street that the recession is dead for good.

For now, mortgage rates remain bouncy, with a general bias to the downside.  There will be "up days" and "down days", but if you can afford to be patient for a few weeks, it may pay dividends.  Especially because the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting next week and there's sure to be some volatility around the event.

As a layperson, you can't get access to real-time mortgage rates like I can so, if you're trying to make good rate locking decisions, consider hiring me as your loan officer. I track rates on a real-time basis and am happy to share what I know. It's news you can't get from the papers or from TV.

Plus, my rates are good.

If you're not already committed to a loan officer,or call me so we can work together.  I'd welcome it.