Trends : How Mortgage Rates Behave In The Fall

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If recent history is an indicator, Labor Day should bring lower mortgage rates with it.

Data from Freddie Mac since 2006 shows that 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to elevate through the warmer months of May, June, July and August before settling lower into the fall season. This year has stayed true to form.

After tacking on a half-percent post-Memorial Day, mortgage rates never quite recovered and sit near their highest levels of the year.  Rates look poised to dip, however.

1. The U.S. dollar is strengthening internationally, boosting the appeal of dollar-denominated securities. This includes mortgage-backed bonds.
2. The U.S. is showing signs of economic recovery and it's making the recovery without introducing inflationary pressures
3. Equity sell-offs are pushing freed cash into the mortgage-backed bond market

All 3 forces combine to pressure mortgage rates lower -- even as the Federal Reserve winds down its $750 billion mortgage market intervention.

September 1, conventional mortgage rates fell by 1/8.

As a rate shopper, it's tough to know what's happening with mortgage rates in real-time because the CNBC ticker doesn't show MBS pricing like it does for the Dow Jones Industrial Average or for stocks.   Even the U.S. Treasury market fails as a proxy these days.

Mortgage pricing is a complex beast and, unfortunately, Wall Street's raw pricing is protected.

To keep up with rates on your own, follow my feed on Twitter.  I update with market movements several times daily and, because I know how the banks play The Rate Game, I like to signal when a mortgage rate change coming down the pike.  Generally, I'm giving about 30 minutes notice.