Are Mortgage Rates Going Up Or Down? (August 20, 2009 Edition)

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Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or reverse mortgage. For rate quotes,.

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 37% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

My advice not even be appropriate for your particular situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching the Back to the Future Theme Song set to lyrics to be a better use of your time.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage rates can't break their range. It's been like this since May."

Earlier this week, we talked about Technical Analysis and its effect on mortgage rates.  Technical Analysis is a pseudo-science, a system meant to predict the future of a security's pricing based on its past performance.  By watching trends over time, some traders say, you can pinpoint where a particular market is going to go next.

A quick look at Wikipedia's Technical Analysis page shows how highly nuanced the art form can be.  So nuanced, in fact, that some call it "made up".

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle -- and for an interesting reason.  If enough people believe a security will follow a pattern and trade on that belief, the pattern is eventually fulfilled.

In this sense, Technical Analysis can be self-fulfilling. It's why rates, over the medium-term, should stay relatively unchanged.

Since the start of the year, a map of mortgage rates shows pricing contained within a zone. When rates get above the zone, they fall.  When rates go below the zone, they rise.  This should continue until an outside economic shocks the system and shakes the zone loose.

This "shock" can come in several forms. It would reset the current rate range higher or lower from where's its at now. Some examples include:

• An abrupt change in U.S. employment trends
• An especially damaging Hurricane Season
• An unexpected and sharp change in U.S. monetary policy

Any one of these events would bust the technical trading patterns by which markets have been made and, at that points, it's all bets are off on what happens to mortgage rates next.

For now, though, it'll be some days up and some days down, but overall, unchanged.

If you're not working with a loan officer and want to work with me, I'm never too far from my phone orso just reach out anytime.  I'll help you try to time a market bottom so you don't overpay on your rate or your fees.

Or, watch rates in the bankground on Twitter. I post market updates throughout the day. Send a message to @mortgagereports so I know you're listening.