For Housing Markets, The End Is In Sight. The End Of The BOTTOM, That Is.

• Tweet

Sometimes, it pays to look at the bigger picture.

With respect to the health of the housing market, now is one of those times. Despite what you're reading, the industry-wide housing recovery is well underway and it's based on basic economic principals that have held for hundreds of years.

Because of Supply and Demand, we can rationalize that the end of housing's freefall is in sight and that this is not a false positive.

Unfortunately, because of its chronic myopia, the American media-at-large is failing to connect the dots for the general public. 

Here's what I mean:

1. The number of "used homes" sold is rising. The press harps on falling prices.
2. Homes under contract are rising. The press ties it to "fire sales".
3. Builders cut new construction. The press says the collapse is accelerating.
4. Banks stop foreclosing. The press says it from sociopolitical pressures.
5. Fannie Mae lets investors expand their portfolios. The press ignores the story.

It's not that the press is wrong -- they're not.  It's just that the press is looking at each story individually instead of as a whole. Yes, prices are down and many homeowners are hurting.  Nobody will dispute that. 

Economic analysis, though, is like a Seurat. The story is not in the points, but how the points fit together.

Taking a step back from the headlines, we clearly see the other side of the story, the one that shows that the number of buyers are increasing; that builders are cutting back; that banks are keeping homes off the market; that Fannie Mae is giving investors permission to bid at auction. 

The Supply and Demand curve is shifting. It's providing the framework for a national housing recovery.

But it doesn't end there.  We also have to account for the recently-signed-into-law American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, a/k/a ARRA, a/k/a The Stimulus Plan.  In it, Congress grants an $8,000 tax credit to first-time home buyers.  Again, though, the press focuses on the wrong issue.  Instead of talking about showing that an $8,000 tax credit could add to the buy-side demand for housing, the press says a $15,000 tax credit would have been better.

Look. All the pieces are in place, folks.  Demand is rising. Supply is falling. The government is intent on keeping mortgage rates low.  It's very likely -- statistically -- that the housing recovery is already underway.  Home prices, after all, are a symptom; home inventories are a cause.

And, like A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte, if you focus on the minute details, you're going to miss the bigger picture. Just ask Cameron.