What Mortgage Rates Will Do Over The Next 30 Days (July 23, 2009 Edition)

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Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages. For rate quotes,.

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 27% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 27% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

Of course, I can't promise that my prediction will be correct, nor can I say that my opinion is appropriate for your particular situation. But you knew that.

With all of that disclaimed, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Barring a shock to the system, rates remain range-bound for now."

Since late last year, it's been difficult to shop for a mortgage rate.  Because markets have been excessively volatile, mortgage rates are getting re-posted several times per day, often carving out huge spreads from AM to PM.

We've had days in which rates have risen by a quarter-percent, by three-eighths of a percent, and several days on which rates rose by a half-percent or more.

We've also had days in which rates have fallen, but rates rarely fall as quickly as they rise.   When rates fall, it's often with a slow crawl that spans about a week.

Occasionally, there's an outside force to pound rates down but that rarely lasts, either.  An example of an outside force is when the Federal Reserve announced an additional $750 million in support of mortgage markets in March 2009.  This spawned a rush on mortgage bonds that dropped rates in a flash, but only for an instant.

Rates returned to pre-intervention levels within 24 hours.

If we study the long-term mortgage rate pattern dating back to late-2008, we observe that mortgage rates have bounced within in a tight range for nearly 8 months, only breaking the upper and lower boundaries for brief moments in time.

Conforming mortgage rates appear to be "stuck" near 5.250 percent with 0 points.

Now, this doesn't mean that rates are 5.250 percent today, necessarily.  It just means that, over the long-haul, mortgage rates keep coming back to the same 5-and-a-quarter marker.  And until there's some a new shock to the system -- similar to the Fed's intervention in March -- mortgage rates should stay there.

Remember: On any given day, rates can be up or rates can be down.  And on some days, they can be both.  If you're wanting to make sure your rate is locked when rates are down, the best thing you can do is saddle up with a loan officer who will watch the market on your behalf.

This is something I do for my clients every day. I'm happy to do it for you, too. If you're not already working with a loan officer and are shopping for mortgage -- on a purchase or a refinance -- consider using my Rate Watch program.

Call orand I'll take a full loan application from you to keep on file, queued up for when rates drop.  We'll set a "target rate" together and then, when that target rate hits, I'll submit your rate lock on the spot.  From there, we start working toward the closing.

Or, if you prefer watching rates from the sidelines, my Twitter feed is http://twitter.com/mortgagereports. I post several mortgage updates each day.