What Mortgage Rates Will Do Over The Next 30 Days (July 9, 2009 Edition)

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Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages. For rate quotes,.

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 19% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 37% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 44% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I predict that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

In a world where every rate shopper has their own risk tolerance, though, remember that my prediction may not be appropriate for your particular situation. I can't even promise this will be the best 4-minute recap you see today.

Here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Mortgage markets may sputter along until Labor Day."

There's an interesting dynamic on Wall Street right now.

5 weeks ago, Wall Street was mostly convinced that the economy was about to turn a corner.  At the time, traders were piling into the stock market, chasing big gains and selling everything risk-averse.  Mortgage bonds were in very low demand and the supply glut pushed rates north of 6 percent.

Since then, the world has calmed down a bit.

Housing and manufacturing continue to show strength, but some key pockets of economic weakness have poked investors into taking some profits off the table.  The Dow has since shed some of its gains since March and the action is causing mortgage bonds to improve.

If inflation fears made rates soar to June, concerns of a slowdown are helping them fall in July.

Now, this doesn't mean that rates will fall for certain.  Sometime last week, key government officials broached the topic of Economic Stimulus Part II.  Worried that the first stimulus is not taking hold fast enough, the second package is being purported to hasten a recovery.  It would also commit additional U.S. dollars to the effort.

To mortgage markets, printing cash would be a strong kick in the gut.  Monetary inflation is as insidious as commodity-fueled inflation and -- in any form -- inflation is terrible for mortgage rates.

The world moves quickly and mortgage rates do,too.  If you're not already working with a loan officer and know you'll need a new mortgage soon, it's probably okay to float your rate for a little bit but you may want to participate in my Rate Watch program.

Call orand I'll take a full loan application from you to keep on file and queued up. I'll ask you to pick a "target rate" and the, when I see it available on the rate sheets, I'll submit and commit it for you. We then start working toward your closing.

Or, if you prefer watching rates from the sidelines, my Twitter timeline is http://twitter.com/mortgagereports. I post several mortgage updates each day.