What Mortgage Rates Will Do Over The Next 30 Days (April 16, 2009 Edition)

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Are mortgage rates going up?  Are mortgage rates going down?  I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may have your answers.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages.  It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages.  For rate quotes,.

 The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 9% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 19% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 72% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am predicting that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days. My prediction may not be appropriate for your individual situation and it may not be as helpful to you as Biff's Question Song.

Here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The push-and-pull between stocks and bonds is a stalemate for now."

Not so long ago, Wall Street-traded securities move on fundamentals -- the strength of the economy, the health of corporations, data like GDP and so on.  It was a safe dance because traders almost always found somebody to take a counter-bet.  Markets ebbed and flowed in an easy-going way with long-term trends taking months to develop.

Lately, though, Wall Street's been binary in its trading pattern, it seems.  Put the risk on the table with a move to equities, take the risk off the table with a move to bonds.  Put the risk on, take the risk off.  Risk on, risk off. Risk on, risk off. Daniel-san.

With mortgage rates are tied to mortgage bond pricing, and mortgage bond pricing tied to risk appetite, we can see why mortgage rates tend to rise when banks and housing show strength, and why they tend to fall when data points to more recessionary months ahead.

The winner of this tug-o-war won't be known for months. Until then, mortgage rates will be in flux.  Some days up, some days down.  Overall, flat.

As a reminder, when mortgage rates move, they move quickly.  I use Twitter to transmit near-real-time changes.  Come watch my feed at http://www.twitter.com/mortgagereports. I post several updates each day.  If you join Twitter and I'm your first follow, please let me know you're watching by sending me a tweet. 

Type "@mortgagereports First Follow" and I'll get the message.