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Mortgage Rate Predictions For The Next 30 Days (December 10, 2009)

Posted on December 10, 2009
Filed under Rate Surveys
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Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati.

for a real-time rate quote.

Mortgage rate predictions for the next 30 daysHere's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

  • 57% predict mortgage rates will increase
  • 14% predict mortgage rates will decrease
  • 29% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, you may find your time better spent watching the coolest stop-motion ad for books you've ever seen than reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The ride will be bumpy so lock on the dips."

It's been an interesting 12 months.  The economy has reversed, housing is recovering, and the mortgage market has been run through the wringer.

At this time last year, our spirits were squashed.  Today, though, we have hope. And as the nation regains its footing from what should have been the worst economic depression on record, there's now lingering uncertainty on Wall Street about what's due for the country in the months and years ahead.

Rate shoppers be ready.

Lack of economic conviction is why mortgage rates have stayed low this year. Almost like inertia.  It's also why rates have failed to break out from a meaningful range. 4.875-5.375 percent just seems so 2009. It'll probably stick into early-2010, too.

But for the next 30 days, there's some wildcards to watch.

  • Will investors go "safe haven" with their buys, or take their profits off the table?
  • How will retailers fare as holiday shopping reaches a crescendo?
  • Will the dollar's new strength draw interest to mortgage bonds?

It's going to be bumpy and rates will carve out a range.  Therefore, if you know you need to lock a rate, talk with your loan officer about the rate that's right for you, and then wait for it.  If you're patient and you set a reasonable rate target, you'll probably get the chance to lock it.

If you don't have a loan officer or prefer to talk with me personally about your situation, just with some notes on your mortgage.  I'll bounce back with some answers for you.  I handle my emails personally and my rates are very good.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

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