One things is clear.  4.500 percent with roughly 1 point is the mortgage market's line-in-the-sand de l'année.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rates has troughed at that exact point 5 times in the last 13 months :

1. Late-November 2008
2. Early-January 2009
3. Mid-March 2009
4. Late-May 2009
5. Early-December 2009

It's an amazingly low rate as compared to history but what's bedeviling is that rates can't seem to break lower.  Every time markets hit the "all-time low", they bounce back higher.

The storyline is well-covered by the press.  Mortgage rates move higher, then experts predict they'll never come down again, then mortgage rates come down, then the experts say "this is the last time".

The impact on Cincinnati's homeowners is palpable.  Whenever mortgage rates rise off that floor, versus feeling an urgency to lock, they choose to wait for a fall.  And why shouldn't they?  It's a strategy that's worked very well since last year and has likely saved a lot of families a lot of money.

But just because the strategy has worked doesn't make it a good idea.  Actually, it's the opposite of a good idea, not the least of which is that it tempts the mortgage rate gods to screw you.

See, aside from mortgage rates, there's other factors that account for your final mortgage approval and none of them are within your control.  Rates may fall back to 4.500 percent at some point in the future, but when they do, you might not be able to take advantage.  Here's 9 things that could go wrong from a much longer list.

1. You could unexpectedly lose your job.  More than 7,000,000 people have been fired in the last 2 years and employment data is still net negative month-to-month. No job, no mortgage approval. Period.

2. Mortgage lenders are reducing loan-to-value limitations.  Suddenly, having a 20 equity stake in your home may not be enough to qualify.  Sometimes, you need 25 percent or more.  On jumbo loans, that number can be even higher.  Homeowners with jumbo and non-owner occupied mortgages are especially susceptible here.

3. Your home could be damaged in a storm. Weather is as unpredictable as mortgage rates and Mother Nature can be a mean one.  Just ask the folks in Chicago who expect up to 10 inches of snow in parts of the suburbs today.  The problem here is that once a state Governor requests federal aid for a storm, mortgage lenders put their closings on hold pending complete home re-inspections.  A damaged home doesn't get its new mortgage.

4. Mortgage insurance rates could rise. Private mortgage insurers lost billions in 2008 and have thrice raised premiums to even up their balance sheets.  Some are returning to profitability but it's likely that PMI rates will rise again. Higher PMI costs offset proposed monthly savings.

5. You could fall ill or get injured. Medical reasons are the second-most common trigger for home foreclosures next to income curtailment (See #1).  If illness keeps you from working, or leads to a long-term disability, your mortgage approval chances drop dramatically.  Nobody ever expects to get sick.

6. Banks could tighten lending guidelines. Well, we already know this is happening. FHA, conforming and niche lenders are still fine-tuning their respective lending models to protect against losses in 2010 and beyond.  The result: Applicants that qualify for a mortgage today may not qualify for one tomorrow.

7. Your home's value could fall. Foreclosures and "fire sales" lower the Fair Market Value of every home in the immediate area.  A home similar to yours that sells for less than yours is going to lower your home's value on paper. Lower valuations lead to higher LTVs and, often, higher mortgage rates.

8. Your credit score could fall unexpectedly. Credit scores are meant predict the likelihood of mortgage default and the model appears to have failed.  As a result, credit bureaus are making tweaks.  Carrying high balances or opening new tradelines appears to be more damaging to credit scores than it used to be.  Lower credit scores means higher mortgage rates.

9. Mortgage rates could rise, not fall. Look, nobody knows what rates will do tomorrow.  Anyone who says they do is lying.  The only thing predictable about mortgage rates is that they're unpredictable.  Take what you can, when you can.  You can always refinance again later.

And, if you want to throw a 10th reason in there for good measure, use this: It's a pain in the arse for the average person to track mortgage rates and at-work productivity can really suffer while you try.

The sooner you commit to a rate, the sooner you can move on with your life.

To get started with your approval, or just to check rates, or give me a call. I answer all my own emails and I like to work with my readers. Plus, my rates are really good.

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Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.