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If history is an indicator, mortgage rates should ease a bit into 2010.

Data from Freddie Mac since 2006 shows that 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to rise during the summer months, and fall through the fall.

So far, 2009 is staying true to form.

After a post-Memorial Day mortgage rate run-up, the 30-year fixed idled through June, July and August.  And then, on Labor Day, as if on cue, Cincinnati homeowners caught a break.  Mortgage rates began to drop.

By the first week in October, rates had returned to early-May levels, the damage of the summer unwound.

But for homeowners in want of a refinance, 2009 may not be the year to wait on lower-rates-to-come.  This year -- this year in particular -- is very different from the 3 years prior.  This year, the economy is emerging from recession as opposed to entering one.

Today's market environment is distinctly different from what we're used to.

1. The Federal Reserve is ending its mortgage market support instead of beginning it
2. Legitimate concerns about inflation are resurfacing on Wall Street
3. World economies are showing signs of life, spurring global equity investment
4. The U.S. Dollar is sagging against other currencies, devaluing mortgage bonds

Individually, these events exact a measurable, upward force on mortgage rates.  Together, they could completely wreck today's low-rate environment.

We could be looking at 7 percent mortgage rates in a flash, or rates could ease into the New Year.

Either outcome is plausible and that's why timing a market bottom is so challenging.

As a rate shopper, it's important to know what markets are doing at any given moment.  Unfortunately, there's no authorized source that gives the information for free.  Even the U.S. Treasury market fails as a proxy anymore.

So, to keep up with rates on your own, do it the free way -- follow my feed on Twitter or fan me on Facebook. I post near-real-time mortgage market updates several times daily and -- because I know how the banks play The Rate Game -- I post advance notice about when a rate change is about to happen.

Generally, I'm giving about 15 minutes notice.

You can also get a feel for what rates are doing right now by using the "Rate Offer" form at the top-right of this page. If your situation can't be summed up in 8 simple fields, .

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.