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Mortgage Rate Predictions (October 8, 2009 Edition)

Posted on October 7, 2009
Filed under Rate Surveys
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Thanks for visiting The Mortgage Reports. To stay absolutely current on mortgage markets and important guideline changes, be sure to take my free daily email alerts.

Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, veterans mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Mortgage rate predictions : Are rates going up or down?Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

  • 29% predict mortgage rates will increase
  • 14% predict mortgage rates will decrease
  • 57% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Ultimately, your time may be better spent watching this video of monkeys doing Men In Black versus reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Strong demand for bonds offsets dollar weakness."

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar has been getting slaughtered.  It's at a 2-month low against the Euro and is similarly weak against Asian currencies.  There are some fundamentals behind the devaluation including weak consumer spending and confidence numbers,  but we can't overlook the technical factors that are driving prices, too.

As Newton tells us, an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.

Momentum in markets can be hard to break.

A weak dollar is bad for mortgage rates because mortgage bonds are repaid in U.S. dollars.  When the dollar loses value, the value of those repayments fall, too, rendering mortgage bonds a less-attractive investment.

Investors sell into a weak dollar.

But as the dollar has sagged lately, bonds appear to be holding their own.  Even yesterday, a U.S. Treasury auction was heavily bid.  This is because the dollar is still a safe-haven currency and it's consistent with historical trends.

When the world is running down, dollar-denominated bonds benefit.

Global economic uncertainty is creating a demand for bonds, opposite and nearly-equal to the newfound supply as a result of a sagging greenback.

Ergo, mortgage rates are flat and should remain flat until market conditions change.

Rates fell in September and markets are back to their pre-Summer levels. We've seen these rates a five times in the past 10 months and markets appear unwilling to fall further.  It's time to stop waiting around for the mythical 4.500 percent 30-year fixed mortgage and just take what the market's giving you.

Between now and Thanksgiving, rates are much more likely to rise than to fall.

Mortgage rates change minute-by-minute and getting real-time access to pricing can be expensive.  I pay for a premium service, though, and share the data in near-real time on both my Facebook Page and on Twitter.

I've helped a lot of people time their rate locks and I'm happy to do that for you, too.

Also, if you find my advice helpful and you're not already committed to a loan officer, or call me so we can work together. I happen to really like working with my readers.

And, oh yeah, my rates are really good.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Bankrate.com, Isaac Newton, Monkey Movies, The Police, U.S. Dollar

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