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So here's a little tidbit: Inflation may be runner hotter (or colder) than the government says. It's a matter of rounding digits.

The story goes like this.

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics presents the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index each month, its figures are raw numbers benchmarked against a 1982-starting value of 100.

In 1982, CPI was 100.  Last month, it was 215-and-change.  This tells us that the "Cost of Living" has more than doubled over the past 27 years.

Unfortunately, though, when the government makes it press releases, it doesn't talk in terms of those raw numbers. Instead, it shows inflation in terms of the change from the month prior, expressed as a percentage, rounded to one decimal.

According to the government, consumer inflation fell 0.1% last month.

This is where the problems set in.

Rounding to one decimal place is amazingly imprecise and outright unacceptable for measurements in need of precision.  Economic inflation is one such measurement.

Think about what rounding to one decimal place would do to baseball. Both Ted Williams and Delino Deshields would be career .300 hitters.

Or to math. Solving for Pi would be a piece of cake at 3.1.

Because the government's reporting of inflation is imprecise, Wall Street's perception of the economy is imprecise, too.  This influences the stock market, currency trading, and bonds.  It changes mortgage rates, too.

Inflationary pressure correlates to higher mortgage rates.

Since September 2008:

• Sum of monthly CPI data from the government : +1.8%.
• Sum of non-rounded CPI data from the government : +1.613%

Therefore, consumer inflation is 12% less than what many on Wall Street believe.

If investors were paying attention to this, we would expect mortgage rates to be falling. They're not.  Rates are up again this morning and are now posting 5/8 percent worse from just 3 weeks ago.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin, PPI is running hotter than what the government reports.  Few people are watching that, either.

You can't make precise decisions without precise data so remember to look deeper than the headline.  Sometimes, you have to do your own math.  It gets geeky at times, but watching the right data is what separates the accurate analysts from the merely average ones.

If you're watching mortgage rates and need help finding the right time to lock, enlist my help as a loan officer. and we'll map out your plan.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.