Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 38% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 24% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 38% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am setting the trend, predicting that mortgage rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always right. Heck, you may find watching a video with monkeys doing Men in Black to be a better use of your time than reading my commentary.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Absent clear positive or negative economic news, rates drift lower into Fall."

As a rate shopper, the most dangerous situation is when market fundamentals are inconsistent, forcing Wall Street to trade on sentiment instead.  Because "gut feel" has no data to back it up, it leads to lopsided trading patterns that shove rates up and down with the wind.

By contrast, fundamentals are something you can sink your teeth into.

When market fundamentals are consistently strong or weak, it gives traders direction.  By combining data from multiple bureaus and multiple sources, Wall Street can make an inference about the future of the U.S. economy and that can soothe markets into a relative calm.

We haven't had it since 2006.

There's been a lot of discussion that the recession is over and that may be true.  However, not all the data points to the positive.  The most classic example is the rising unemployment rate vis-a-vis the lack of available jobs.  Without income, there's no income tax and, more importantly, no consumer spending.

The phrase "jobless recovery" won't cut it in 2009 like it did in 1991 and 2001 -- Wall Street wants to see job creation to be convinced the recovery is underway.  Until that happens, pattern trading will continue.

For now, it should work in the favor of rate shoppers as mortgage rates edge lower with the temperatures nationwide.  There could be days on which rates spike, but, overall, expect an easing of a quarter-point or so.

As a loan officer, I watch mortgage-backed securities and track mortgage rates on a real-time basis. It's news you can't get from the papers or from TV.

If you're not already committed to a loan officer, or call me so we can work together. I get access to good mortgage rates.

---

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.