Are mortgage rates going up? Are mortgage rates going down? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only. It is not specific to Cincinnati, nor does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or super jumbo mortgages. For a personal rate offer, .

Here's the group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 29% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 50% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 21% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am setting the trend, predicting that mortgage rates will decrease over the next 30 days.

My advice not be appropriate for your individual situation and I'm not always accurate besides. Heck, you may find watching a video with every invocation of the name "McFly" in the entire Back to the Future Trilogy to be a better use of your time that reading my analysis.

Either way, here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"Seasonal trends push mortgage rates down."

Fundamentally, the economy looks to be improving. Housing is showing up big, consumer confidence is holding, and the Fed keeps signaling good news.  By all accounts, the stock market should be improving.

It's not.

After the Dow Jones' meteoric, 5-month run-up, profit-taking and nerves are making a showing.  The Dow is down on consecutive days in September amid whispers of a pending correction.  It's not out of the question, either, given that September is the worst month for stocks, historically.

September has some dubious distinctions:

• The 1929 stock market crash started in September
• The Dow's worst month ever was September 1931
• Major market losses occurred in September 1974 and 2001
• September 2008 was the epicenter of the current Financial Crisis

And considering that the Dow is up 45 percent since March, the market is ripe to fall and traders know it.

To say that Wall Street is walking on eggshells would be an understatement.  It's like everyone's just waiting for the light to change and this can easily develop into a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Stocks would sink for no good reason -- similar to what we're seeing now.

For rate shoppers, it could be a break.

As traders shun risk, they'll park their money in things that are safe.  That includes mortgage-backed bonds.  More demand drives prices up and pushes rates down.  Homes would get more affordable and more homeowners could refinance.

So far, we haven't seen this happen, but I expect we will before October 1.

When rates finally fall, they may not fall by much and the dip may not last long.  Therefore, if you think you're going to need a new mortgage in the next few weeks, do yourself a favor and get pro-active about it.  Get your loan application in with a lender in advance.

Waiting for rates to fall and then trying to apply is a fight against time.

As a loan officer, I watch mortgage-backed securities and track rates on a real-time basis. That's something you can't get from the papers or from TV.  If you're not already committed to a loan officer and want to work with me, or call me.  I get access to good mortgage rates.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.