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It’s Time To Call The Housing Bottom : 95% Of Case-Shiller Markets Show Home Price Improvement

Posted on August 25, 2009
Filed under Real Estate Sales
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Case-Shiller Index -- Comparing June 2009 levels to May 2009 levels

Maybe now we can say that housing has bottomed?

After 3 years of disastrous data, 19 of the 20 markets tracked by Case-Shiller improved last month -- the 5th straight month of strong data and the index's strongest showing in 3-plus years.

This is definitely something for the news van.

That said, the Case-Shiller Index remains an imperfect gauge:

  1. It's limited to 20 U.S. cities, representing just 9% of the U.S. population.
  2. It's on a 2-month lag, reflective of how housing was, not how it is
  3. It ignore locality, grouping city neighborhoods into one big lump.

Despite its flaws, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains relevant to an improving economy.

When housing cracks first started formed in 2005 and 2006, Wall Street doubled down its bets despite Case-Shiller calling for an all-out catastrophe of biblical proportions.  Turns out, both sides were wrong, but Case-Shiller earned a ton of street cred from its call.

Today, the Case-Shiller Index is the de facto barometer for home values nationwide.

Getting back to June data, because Case-Shiller says home prices are -- in its own words -- "on an upswing", we can assume it means good things for the housing market, in general.

For home buyers, however, the news may not be so welcome.  The combination of a soon-to-expire $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit and a rebounding housing market means that competition for properties should increase, creating bidding wars and higher home prices.

If you're on the fence about buying a home or wondering if the time is right, according to Case-Shiller, the "right time" may have been 2 months ago.  With prices on the upswing, homes may only get more expensive.

For a pre-approval letter, and I'll get you started.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Case-Shiller Index, Ghostbusters, Swingers, WPVI 6

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