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You likely know this already but mortgage rates have soared since Memorial Day.  Soared.  Strangely, it's the most improbable turn of events that everybody and their mother saw coming.

The root of the rise rests in inflation. As in, the fear of.  And this run on rates had been predicted as far back as December 16, 2008 when the Federal Reserve first dropped the Fed Funds Rate to near 0 percent.

There's been massive economic stimulus in the last 9 months and all of it is meant to reverse the current recession.  The problem, though, is that stimulus doesn't take hold overnight.  It can take months for new policy to work it way through the economy.

Think of it like a car stuck in the mud. 

When a car is stuck in mud, the tires spin feverishly in search of traction.  All the while, the driver gives the car more gas and turns the wheel from side-to-side in hopes of finding a grip.  Then, when the tires do catch pavement, the car ends up shooting forward with tremendous force and speed.

This is what Wall Street is fearing will happen to the mud-stuck economy. 

Once the stimulus makes the economy catch pavement, investors think the engine will be pumping way too hard to avoid inflation and that's what causing mortgage bonds to crash.  Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

And, by the way, it's not that there's proof inflation will take hold -- it's just a hunch that it will and that's too bad for homebuyers in Cincinnati and Chicago.  A hunch is all it takes to make mortgage rates take off.

So why now?  It's not like the Fed Funds Rate hasn't been near 0 percent for a half-year, or that the Fed only recently made its $1.25 trillion pledge in support of treasuries and mortgage bonds, right? 

Well, the answer lies in the data.

• Home sales are rising nationally
• Fewer American workers are losing their jobs
• Demand for goods and services is rising globally

And, perhaps most importantly, a closely-watched Cost of Living index came in higher-than-expected for May 2009.

We may not be in Full Recovery Mode just yet, but it's clear that traders don't want to be on the wrong side of the bet.  Wall Street made big profits as mortgage rates fell below 5 percent and stayed there this Spring.  Now, they're cashing in those profits as rates make their way north toward six percent.

The about-face in the bond pits is why mortgage rates have been volatile since Memorial Day and it's making the process of shopping for a mortgage rate very, very difficult.

As advice to rate shoppers, I paraphrase a famous truant: Mortgage rates move pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around every once in a while, you might miss them. 

A lot of lenders offer floatdown services to borrowers just in case rates fall during underwriting.  Absolutely no lenders, however, offer a "Hindsight is 20/20" service that grant you the right to lock yesterday's rates.  If a rate and payment look good now, therefore, tell your loan officer to get it locked in.

Wait longer than 2 hours when rates are volatile, the rate you want is likely to be gone.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.