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The Untimely Timing Of The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

Posted on June 22, 2009
Filed under On Mortgage Rate Movement
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The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey is expired before it's publishedTo a consumer, one of the most difficult facets of shopping for a mortgage is figuring out just what mortgage rates are doing at any given time.

Despite countless websites and blogs devoted to the topic of mortgage, the most important part of a person's research -- the darn price -- can't be found hardly anywhere online.

It's a horrifying revelation for people vis-à-vis the way we've all been trained to use the internet.  After all, we're conditioned to use the internet as a means to eliminate information asymmetry; to know the price before we ever step foot in the store, so to speak.  That way, we can be sure we're negotiating the best possible deals for ourselves.

Except it doesn't work like that for mortgages.  Prices are elusive.

Through the course of doing mortgage-related research online, most people actually learn a lot about home loans.

  • They learn that mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed bonds and not the 10-year Treasury Note
  • They learn the intricacies of how FHA Streamlines work and about MIP refunds
  • They learn how Conforming Loan Limits apply to their specific zip code

Beyond that, however, it's an information abyss.

When you want to know what mortgage rates are doing, there's no crawler you can watch on CNBC.  There's no ticker symbol to track on Google Finance.  There's not even a section on the Investor’s Business Daily website for it.  So, in the absence of timely mortgage rate information -- unfortunately -- people turn to whatever information they can find.

And that's when the trouble starts.

One of the most widely-recognized mortgage rate surveys is the Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  Published since 1971, it's the basis for national mortgage rate news stories, for Home Affordability studies, for congressional research, and about anything else mortgage-rate related.

The Freddie Mac survey gets a lot of ink in the nation's newspapers and, for most people, it's the only news they hear about whether mortgage rates are rising or falling.

The study is flawed in a big way, however.  Huge.  The problem is with the survey's methodology.

According to Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey results are collected from survey participants Monday through Wednesday, and then published to the public Thursday.  The survey is grouping mortgage rates into a static data point when, in fact, they're anything but static.

It's an egregious example, but across those 3 days last week, lenders issued 9 separate rate sheets with a 1/2 percent spread between them. Survey results were destined to be skewed depending on which day survey participants checked back with Freddie Mac.

Furthermore, because Freddie Mac embargoes the survey results until Thursday morning, there's even another day through which mortgage rates can change.

Again, looking at last week, markets sold off with force Thursday morning, causing rates to rise 0.375 percent before noon.  By the time the Freddie Mac survey was published, therefore, it had zero practical application to rate shoppers in Cincinnati or anywhere else.

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported "average mortgage rates" well below what was actually available at the time its publication.

So, for active home buyers and people wanting to refinance, it's not tough to find information about mortgages, it's only tough to get information about mortgage rates.  Specifically, mortgage rates as they apply to your personal profile.

One solution is to watch my Twitter feed at http://twitter.com/mortgagereports.

If you've never been on Twitter, it's a low-impact workout.  Sign up for a free account, follow me (@mortgagereports), and then check back as often as you'd like.  Whenever you re-visit my Twitter page, you'll see the last series of updates and you can get a feel for whether rates are improving or worsening.  I update the feed several times per day -- more often when markets are turning quickly.

If after some time you find that my Twitter feed isn't "personal" enough for you, and ask to be on the Rate Watch list.  I'll reply back with a request for some basic information and we'll get a feel for today's interest rates as they apply to what you've got going on.  Then, if everything makes sense for you, we can put a Rate Lock agreement in place at your request so that when your target interest rate hits, we'll be ready to lock it on your behalf.

Mortgage rates move quickly and you can't wait for Freddie Mac to tell you what they are.  It's the most heavily-relied upon sources of mortgage rates and it's outdated before it's ever published.  Instead, consider relying on me.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

Tags: Freddie Mac, PMMS, Pretty Woman, Tom Leppard

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