What Mortgage Rates Will Do Over The Next 30 Days (April 2, 2009 Edition)
Posted on April 2, 2009
Filed under Rate Surveys
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I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.
The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages. It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, jumbo mortgages, or foreign national mortgages. For rate quotes, .
The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:
- 25% predict mortgage rates will increase
- 7% predict mortgage rates will decrease
- 64% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged
I am predicting that rates will increase over the next 30 days. My prediction may not be appropriate for your individual situation and it may be wrong, too.
Here's what I told Bankrate.com:
"You can't fight inflation, you can only hope to contain it."
Let's keep this short: Members of the Fed are starting to talk publicly about inflation and the need to contain it as the economy rebounds later this year. The recovery is just a prediction, of course, but the guys making the guesses have a pretty good track record and they ontrol the country's monetary policy.
With respect to inflation, Plosser is calling for vigilance, Hoenig thinks the problem is serious, and Bernanke believes doing too much is way better than doing too little. Markets -- if they haven't already -- should start discounting the probability of inflation soon and, when they do, mortgage rates will rise.
I'm not ruining the end of the movie here, folks. If you want that, watch 100 spoilers in 5 minutes. Inflation pushes mortgage rates higher and some of the highest-ranking federal economists are telling us inflation is coming. It may not happen tomorrow, or the next day, but it's going to happen.
And long before you see it in your bills and the costs of goods, you'll see it in mortgage rates. Consider locking your floating-rate mortgage as soon as you can. Or, wait it out and hope for another government intervention, I suppose.
As a reminder, mortgage rates do move quickly so I use Twitter to transmit near-real-time changes. Come watch my feed at http://www.twitter.com/mortgagereports. I post several updates each day. If you join Twitter and I'm your first follow, please let me know you're watching by sending me a tweet. Type "@mortgagereports First Follow" and I'll get the message.
Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

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