I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages.  It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, or jumbo mortgages.  For rate quotes, .

The group's 30-day prediction for mortgage rates:

• 23% predict mortgage rates will increase
• 31% predict mortgage rates will decrease
• 46% predict mortgage rates will remain unchanged

I am predicting that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days. My prediction may not be appropriate for your individual situation and it may be wrong, too.

Here's what I told Bankrate.com:

"The Fed is deploying its $500 billion to manage mortgage markets."

Late in 2008, the Federal Reserve pledged to purchase $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities within the first six months of the year.  It breaks down to $4.1 billion per business day.  Through the first week of 2009, though, the Fed's purchases were falling short to the tune of roughly $1 billion per day.

That money has to get spent, it's just not getting spent now.  File that point away for a minute -- we'll come back to it.

Meanwhile, since the start of the year, mortgage rates are showing less volatility versus 2008.  Mortgage markets are still erratic, but they're erratic within a much tighter zone.  It's as if each major mortgage bond sell-off is being countered in real-time by the Federal Reserve.  I can't prove it, but I think it's happening.

And given the string of down days on Wall Street, one could surmise that the Fed hasn't had to use all $4.1 billion per day.  If its goal is to keep mortgage rates low and affordable, all the Fed has to provide enough buy-side pressure to gently offset any sell-side pressure. 

When buyers of mortgage bonds outnumber sellers of mortgage bonds, mortgage rates fall.

Given the Fed's slow start, therefore, it's possible that Bernanke & Co is purposefully purchasing less than $4.1 billion per day so that later they can purposefully purchase more.  If the stock market rallies, for example, it could draw a lot of money from mortgage markets and the Fed's intervention would prevent rates from rising.

It's a convoluted explanation and somewhat of a guess, but the analysis makes sense vis-a-vis recent movement in mortgage bond markets.  If the Fed's plan to keep mortgage rates steady, this is one way they could so it.

In the meanwhile, I post mid-day mortgage rates updates on my Twitter feed. Follow me at http://www.twitter.com/mortgagereports and join the conversation anytime.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.