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I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.

The Bankrate.com survey is for conforming mortgages only.  It does not apply to FHA mortgages, VA mortgages, or jumbo mortgages.  However, I do lend on all of these loan types in all 50 states -- email me for a rate quote.

Anyway, here are the group's predictions for the next 30 days:

I am predicting that rates will remain unchanged over the next 30 days, but don't necessarily follow my advice when choosing whether to lock a rate, or float it.  My advice may not be appropriate for your individual situation.

From the Bankrate.com survey:

"Fed's mortgage-backed bond purchase offsets dismal economic data."

People -- even really smart ones -- tend to forget that mortgage rates are the singular output of a very long, and very complicated equation.  There are literally hundreds of variables in the equation.  When one changes quickly, mortgage rates change quickly, too. 

Think about it like stumbling.  Briefly, your footing is lost. Balance returns quickly. 

This is what happened to mortgage markets when the Federal Reserve pledged $500 billion in new mortgage bond demand Tuesday.  The markets tripped on the news because "demand for bonds" is one of the Mortgage Rate Equation variables.  This drove rates down by almost a full point to their lowest levels since January before recovering by roughly half by 2:00 P.M. 

Not surprisingly, the January plunge followed a similar, unexpected announcement.

Unfortunately for home buyers in Cincinnati, Chicago and elsewhere, recoveries happen faster than the press can report them.  It wasn't until Wednesday morning that my phone started ringing off the hook for refinances, but by then, markets had already regained their footing. 

In an interview for NPR's Marketplace, I alluded to this.  By the time the news of the Fed intervention went mainstream, it was too late for rate shoppers to take advantage. 

This is one reason to work with a mortgage guy that proactively manages your mortgage.  You'll know about the market changes right when they happen and you'll get to profit from it.

To have your mortgage managed (for free), here's what you can do:

1. Complete my 4-question "Adopt Your Mortgage" form
2. When you get my auto-responder email, follow its steps
3. Wait to hear from me the next day. We'll craft your plan together

The process is pretty simple and you won't get caught watching the paint dry the next time mortgage rates fall.  It will happen again -- we just don't know when.

In the meanwhile, stay up-to-date on the mortgage markets using my Twitter feed. Get near-real time market updates from me @mortgagereports.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.