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Historically, mortgage markets are boring place for everyday Americans.  I know this because every day I write the blog. 

Over the past few weeks, however, it's been anything but boring.  There's been so much news that keeping up with it all has been a challenge.

To help you sort through what matters and what's trivial, I thought I'd just brain dump on you, Twitter-style. 

What follows is a handful of short-burst stories and commentary on today's market, linked out to interesting sites and sounds.

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All you need is just a little patience: First, let's be clear about something -- credit markets aren't going to thaw overnight.  Like Jamie Moyer, the Treasury Plan will get better with age.  If you want instant results, try coffee.

The Float-or-Lock Dilemma: The toughest part about choosing to lock a mortgage rate is that to lock means to commit to a long-term plan whose success is highly dependent on what the mortgage market is doing this exact instant.  No wonder people get hamstrung about it.

Prime Rate : According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to cut the Fed Funds Rate at its Oct 28-29 meeting.  This will drop credit card and HELOC rates for Americans, but should cause mortgage rates to rise.  The Fed Funds Rate does not control mortgage rates.

The Treasury went zig, not zag: When the government announced its $250 billion plan to buy mortgage debt, rates dropped because markets expectated the government to create new demand for mortgage bonds.  When the government changed its mind, however, and bought banks instead, mortgage rates started to roll back and then some.  Rates are up a lot this week as a result.

Mortgage rates are volatile: I could spell it out for you or just take my word for it.  Either way, by the time you finish this sentence, lenders will have likely issued new rate sheets again.

I've seen 18 recessions and I've rocked them all:  In its history, the United States has entered into recession 18 separate times.  Earth has survived each of them. 

Bad news for real estate investors: Private mortgage insurance companies will no longer insure new investor mortgages over 80 percent loan-to-value.  This includes both lender-paid MI and borrower-paid MI features.  Given Fannie Mae's high fees, though, investors may want to put down 25 percent or more anyway.

Pleasant diversions: If portfolio performance has got your down, this 3-minute video should cheer you up.

Where to find Super Jumbo Mortgages: As Big Bank exit the super jumbo mortgage market, niche banks are stepping in to fill the void.  For holders of mortgages of $1 million mortgage or more, it means more product and at lower rates.  Today's super jumbo mortgage rates are actually lower than conforming mortgage rates for similar 5-year ARMs.  Wow.

Adaptive headlights for economists: If the economy was a long and winding road and the world was traveling by car, we'd see massive monetary supply inflation just around the next bend.  When we finally get there, mortgage rates are going to soar.

3:00 PM stock market rallies: The last 60 minutes of trading each day are like last call at a college bar -- everyone rushes to get their orders in.  The 3:00 PM hour has caused mortgage rates to move more than any other hour in the day by far since September.

Making up for losses: Private mortgage insurers recently raised insurance premiums on all new mortgages and borrowers.  The irony here is that today's borrower is likely to be exceedingly more qualified for a home loan than yesteryear's because of tighter mortgage guidelines.  In the eyes of the insurers, it's as if we're all driving little red corvettes now.

Home Equity is the new Full Documentation: Speaking of PMI, most private mortgage insurers eliminated coverage on non-owner occupied properties Thursday and will discontinue coverage on primary residence cash out refinances effective November 1.  Once again, what lenders will do is more important that the rate at which they'll do it.

Nobody knows nothing: In May 2008, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted $200 oil.  Now, it predicts $50 oil.  That's some about-face.  In the end, folks, remember -- experts are paid to make guesses.

The dollar is on a tear: For non-resident aliens investing in U.S. real estate, don't forget that a strengthening U.S. dollar makes your downpayment relatively more expensive. If you have a pending purchase, consider moving earnest money into escrow as soon as possible.

How quickly fear turns to greed: In 1974, The stock market lost 27 percent of its value in its worst year since the Depression.  The next year, the Dow gained 38 percent in its second-best year since the Depression.  This pattern repeats itself throughout history. 

Desperate for deposits:  Shortly before its failure, Countrywide offered CD yields vastly higher than its competitors.  IndyMac did the same before its failure and Washington Mutual did, too.  See whose CD yields are highest today on Bankrate.com's High Yield Rates report.

Freddie Mac's stale mortgage data:  Each week, Freddie Mac surveys mortgage lenders and reports back the national "average mortgage rate".  That's fine, except that it takes Freddie 48 hours to compile and publish the report and rates change every 3.85 hours.  You want real-time rate quotes?  Talk to a loan officer, not a government group.

The 40-year cycle: We get these big market dips every 40 years or so -- 1929, 1973, 2008.  We've been through them before, we'll go through them again.  Long-term investing will always include short-term losses somewhere on the timeline.

Don't underestimate the American Shopper: Retail Sales were down dramatically in September, driving analysts to predict that holiday shopping will be weak and that the economy will move into recession.  I say no way.  Americans outspend themselves every year during the holidays and with huge retail discounts already in place, 2008 will be no different.

Four fingers pointing back at me:  Yes, I recognize that my Retail Sales prediction is a guess about the future, like the Goldman Sachs oil thing.  But, you may feel better about my predictions after knowing that I subscribe to the Bill and Ted philosophy on wisdom.  That's me, dude. 

Questioning behavioral economics:  And, on the subject of "sales", it's interesting to me how people will wait in line to buy discounted toys, clothing and cars but will run like the wind from discounted stocks and bonds.  Odd.

The obvious truth about mortgage rates:  Look, it doesn't matter how far mortgage rates fall if you can't get a mortgage approval.  Underwriting is tightening so if you know you need a new home loan soon, stop waiting to see if rates fall.  Just get it done.

Early expiration for the jumbo-conforming mortgage program:  It can take a mortgage lender 30 days to get loans off its books and sold to Fannie Mae.  So, without clear guidance on 2009 jumbo conforming loan limits, lenders are requiring jumbo conforming loans to fund no later than December 1, 2008.  That's 42 days from now.

Burning questions:  There are two great mysteries in life.  The first is "Why do people still believe that the 10-year treasury note is a proxy for mortgage rates?".  The second is best referenced by video.  I don't think we'll ever know the answer to either for sure.

How to keep your 30-day mortgage rate lock from expiring:  Mortgage refinance applications spiked last week which means that loads of new loans will soon enter the underwriting .  If you want to preserve your rate lock, put yourself in the front of the stack -- not the back.  Get your pending applications signed and supporting documents in, like, now.

Don't look now: But, mortgage rates have changed again.

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Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.