The Mortgage Market Brain Dump
Posted on May 16, 2008
Filed under Brain Dumping
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There's a scene in Awakenings when Dr. Sayer theorizes about Leonard's condition. He wonders if the trance-like paralysis is the result of an extreme tremor:
If compulsions in the patient were somehow accelerated --- the hands, the shaking, the tics, the head bobbing, the quickening speech -- might they not cave in on themselves and, in effect, turn the person into stone?
And that's my blog post lead-in.
Over the past two weeks, I have had so much to say that I can't seem to say anything at all. It's like a sink clogged with hair and I just need to push everything through with a pipe-clearning snake. So, the plan is to just barf all over this Web page and dirty it with everything I've mentally eaten lately.
There's a lot of bullet points to read, a lot of links to follow, and if you're not careful, you might learn something before it's done.
Okay... I think I'm gonna hurl.
401(k) loans as downpayments: A growing number of Americans are using 401(k) loans to fund a downpayment. Sure, you're paying interest on the money you borrow, but your dollars are taxed twice and you damage your compounding interest. It's not the no brainer most people think.
Building homes is good business: Lumber, land, and materials are very cheap right now so it's not surprising that Housing Starts are up. Aside from saving 25 percent versus two years ago, there's plenty of available labor to finish the home on-time.
Sunlight is free: Sooner or later, I'm going to break down and go solar.
Twitter: Follow me and get timely updates on the market in 140 characters or less.
Condos are the other shoe: Mortgage guidelines are about to get very tough for condo owners. If you live in a condo, or want to buy one, it won't be as easy or cheap to get financing as it is right now.
Green is the new pink: With the abundance of energy-saving advice lately, there's no reason why we all can't do our part to conserve. Not everyone has a hot tub, but there's 12 others tips on this list to use.
Appraisal challenges: Because of "down" markets, lenders want appraisers to find comparable homes that have sold within 30 days. No comps, no mortgage approval. Strangely, the very definition of a "down" market is that homes aren't selling. As a result, a lot of applications have "died" in appraisal review.
Passing the buck to FHA: Fannie and Freddie's risk-based fees are making conforming mortgages super-expensive for all but the lowest-risk mortgage applicants. For high-risk borrowers, the cheaper alternative is FHA. I don't have to tell you how this story's going to end.
One word has never been funnier: What?
Global money flow helps mortgage rates fall: Rising optimism about the U.S. economy attracts global investors to U.S. dollar-denominated securities. That's good news for home buyers. When demand for mortgage bonds is strong, mortgage rates fall.
Super-saturation: I can't help but notice that foreclosures are quickly becoming the leading cause of statistics.
If the experts are confounded, what hope is there for the laymen?: Lenders issued 11 separate rate sheets over four days this week, a clip of nearly three per day. As a guy who lives, eats and breathes mortgages every day of my life, even I have trouble keeping it straight. It must be really scary to be a person who does this once every few years.
Strong branding: "Green" is now a major buzzword with huge amounts of stickiness. Considering my last name, I missed out on a terrific branding opportunity. I could have been "GreenMortgages.com" or something Green-related like that. Instead, I bought http://www.hillaryclintonistomcruise.com in support of my Bubblegum Interview.
Spending money to make money: The current cost of making a penny and a nickel are 1.26 cents and 7.7 cents, respectively. The Treasury "lost" $100 million minting them last year.
Ben Bernanke is the Grandmaster: When you watch a Grandmaster play chess, it's not always clear why he moves pieces in the way that he does but there's always a master plan. Ben Bernanke plays chess with a four-year timeframe and his highly-criticized first year in office is suddenly making a lot of sense. Let the game play out.
Appraisal challenges (Part II): It's a bad time to buy the nicest home in the neighborhood. Not for investment reasons, but because an appraiser won't be able to find comparable homes for sale. No recent comps, no mortgage approval.
Frozen HELOCs hurt credit scores: When a mortgage lender shuts down a homeowner's HELOC, the credit bureaus treat the account as "closed, with a balance". This is credit score poison because Debt Utilization makes up 30 percent of a credit score. Having a balance on a closed account is the next worst thing to being delinquent. I have a long list of clients that are feeling the pain.
Keeping it simple: I'm a sucker for easy-to-follow graphics like this BBC explanation of how a credit crunch happens.
Four-One-Niner, you have clearance, over: That's Clarence Oveur.
An idea for when gas prices fall: By my math, high gas prices are adding $50 per month to a household's budget. That's $600 per year, or about the cost of a $1,000,000 term life insurance policy for a healthy person. If you can make room in your budget for gasoline today, you can make room for life insurance later.
But will it blend?: Blendtec destroys iPhones for fun but watch what happens when Chuck Norris comes to play.
Life happens: Personal injury and illness is 7 times more likely to lead to a foreclosure than adjusting mortgage payments. This is why disability insurance is a must for every homeowner. Yes, it can be expensive and confusing, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't have it. I'm happy to refer a reputable insurance advisor to talk with you -- just email me about it.
Sarah Silverman has company: Matt Damon does somebody else.
Appraisal challenges (Part III): One nice thing about "cookie cutter" housing developments in which every home looks the same is that appraisers don't have to struggle to find "comparable sales". This helps mortgage applicants because no recent comps, no mortgage approval.
Your personal loan officer may have left the business: Loan officers like to stay in touch with their clients so if you haven't been contacted by your loan officer in a while, it's possible you've been "orphaned". Get yourself adopted. When rates fall, you'll find out about it in advance instead of finding out too late. The adoption process is easy -- get started today.
The LIBOR conspiracy: There's an investigation into LIBOR price-fixing; that the benchmark lending rate has been kept artificially low. If wrong-doing is found: (1) ARMs tied to LIBOR are much more likely to adjust higher at their scheduled reset, and (2) ARMs tied to the U.S. Treasury should come back into vogue.
Fear and greed: If chasing profits was the mortgage industry Modus Operandi in 2005, protecting assets is the MO of 2008. Much like the TSA, underwriters are being aggressively trained to spot perpetrators. If your mortgage application even smells suspicious, expect to go into the "special line".
The bad numbers: Avoid 3, 6, and 7.
Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

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