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Today, Hurricane Paul is weakening to a Category 1 Hurricane as it dies a slow death off the coast of Texas.  Mortgage rates are moving higher in response.

See, after last year's record Hurricane Season, the activists were screaming about Global Warming and predicted that this season's hurricanes would be just as bad.  Still smarting from the oil supply issues post-Katrina and others, markets did not want to be burned again.

So, heading into Hurricane Season 2006, oil prices rose from $57 to $75 per barrel.  Prices held in that range until the start of September when it became apparent that the oil supply would be plentiful. 

No hurricanes reached U.S. soil and that forced markets to change their expectation of where oil prices should be.  That began the tumble to today's $58 levels, giving consumers a boost in the wallet. 

That newfound "wealth" is finding its way back into the economy.  Retail sales are humming and the new expectation is that this will be a record-breaking Christmas as the registers.

If there was ever a reason to hate Elmo TMX (more), it's that you want the spending to stop, inflation to remain contained, and mortgage rates to stay low.

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.