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The Holiday Season Effect And How It Impacts Mortgage Rates

Posted on December 15, 2005
Filed under On Liquidity In Mortgage Bonds
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It's officially the Holiday Season and as we get closer to 2006, more and more traders will be "checking out" for the year. 

When traders aren't trading, volume levels fall, leading to volatility.

That's why mortgage bond prices tend to move more wildly than normal at this time of year.  It makes mortgage rates move more wildly, too.

This could spell trouble for rate shoppers.

We often see mortgage rate volatility on the days before a three-day weekend.  Sometimes market participants take Friday off, and that plays a part in the mortgage rate roller coaster -- there's fewer buyers and sellers to match up at the "right price".

The Holiday Season isn't just a weekend, though.  It's the entire month.

Think about your own year-end calendar. 

  • Maybe holiday parties get you out of the office some afternoons
  • Maybe you take a long weekend for some shopping
  • Maybe you leaving work at noon one day "just because"
  • Maybe you take off the day before Christmas weekend
  • Maybe you take off the last week of December entirely

As your Holiday Season life goes, so goes the life of traders.  They don't show up for work just because you and I count on them to show up so rates stay more stable.

Because of the high volatility expected over the next three weeks, give careful consideration to locking your mortgage as soon as you can.


Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.

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