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At the start of 2004, economists were concerned that $40 barrels of oil would tear down the House of Cards that was the expanding U.S. economy.

The Federal Reserve was not convinced; it started a series of increases to the Fed Funds Rate to slow down inflation.

Oil creeped to $50 per barrel.  The economy continued to surge ahead.  The FOMC continued to raise the Fed Funds Rate to rein in inflation.

Today, oil is settled around $64 per barrel and the economy is still showing signs of growth.

I raise the point because the consensus opinion from economists is not always right, nor is it always wrong.  It is there to shape discussions and give guidance to the markets.

Because investors pay close attention to consensus opinions, any "wrongness" in those opinions can really rattle mortgage rates.

If today's trading is based on an economy-halting $65 per barrel, how will we react if that price is even higher 18 months from today?

Dan Green is an active loan officer. Email or call 513-443-2020. Dan is on Twitter at @mortgagereports.