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An economist can interpret the past with extreme detail and relevancy, but get him talking about the future and he's as useful as perfume on a pig.
At the start of the year, the Wall Street Journal polled 56 economics to predict what the 10-year treasury note would be yielding six months down the road.
The average prediction called for the 10-year treasury to sit at 4.90% on June 30, 2006, a rise of 51 basis points.
On June 30, the 10-year treasury was 5.15%, 25 basis points higher than the average economists predictions. That means that the average economist was wrong by 50 percent.
That's a huge miss and it points to a bigger issue of trying to predict the future of mortgage rates and whether 'tis nobler to float or to lock.
And maybe this poll explains why mortgage markets have been all over the place lately -- the market "experts" are making predictions and setting expectations for traders, but those predictions have been no more accurate than random guesses.
Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.
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