01Aug2006
Dan Green
Author
Dan Green
Filed Under
Federal Reserve

Is the FOMC Emotionally Wiped Out?

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A look at the National Savings Rate shows that Americans are saving at a rate of -1.50%.  As a nation, we're spending more than we earn. 

By a lot. 

This is one of the reasons why the economy won't seem to slow down -- Americans just keep spending and spending.

Combine that with a few other news tidbits from the Fed, and the picture on the future of the Fed Funds Rate gets really fuzzy.

  1. St. Louis Fed President Poole said that he sees a 50% chance of another rate hike on August 8.  Considering that the markets are pricing in an expectation of about 40%, that means that either the markets are wrong, or Poole is all wet.  Is that the worst pun ever?
  2. San Francisco Fed President Yellen said that the Fed "is close to the end of the road" with respect to rate hikes.
  3. New Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was on CNBC and he said that he has been eating breakfast with Fed Chairman Bernanke once weekly and he sees no recession on the horizon.

Data-dependant or not, the Fed voting members are people, and are just as susceptible to emotional decisions as the rest of us. 

I am not saying that the Fed is done with rate hikes, but it sure sounds like a lot of people are throwing in the towel in advance of the FOMC meeting next week.

Dan Green
Author
Dan Green

About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.

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