29Aug2006
Dan Green
Author
Dan Green
Filed Under
Federal Reserve

Predicting The Outcome Of The FOMC’s September 20, 2006 Meeting (T-Minus 22 Days)

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20 minutes prior to the release of the Fed Minutes, and markets are predicting with 80% certainty that the Federal Funds Rate will remain unchanged after the September 20 FOMC meeting

20 minutes prior to the release of the Fed Minutes, and markets are predicting with 80% certainty that the Federal Funds Rate will remain unchanged after the September 20 FOMC meeting.

Interpreting the chart above provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, we can see what markets expect:

  • 2% probability that the Fed Funds Rate decreases to 5.00%
  • 80% probability that the Fed Funds Rate remains unchanged at 5.25%
  • 18% probability that the Fed Funds Rate increases to 5.50%
  • 0% probability that the Fed Funds Rate increases to 5.75%

The statistics are the result of a formula exacted upon the Fed Futures Markets, in case you care.  If you don't care, that's fine.  It's pretty arcane, but you can read about it if you want to.

I expect the chart to shift in the days leading up to the September 20 FOMC meeting as markets leave their comfort zone about inflation and the Fed's take on it.

Dan Green
Author
Dan Green

About the Author

Dan Green (NMLS #227607) is an active loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage. Email Dan ator call 513-443-2020.

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